China's New Five-Year Plan: 17% Carbon Intensity Cut, Zero CDR
China released its 15th Five-Year Plan this week. The headline number: a 17% reduction in carbon intensity (CO₂ per unit of GDP) from 2026 to 2030, with a 3.8% cut targeted for this year alone. Sounds ambitious. It’s not. The Math Problem Carbon intensity drops even if absolute emissions rise — you just need your economy to grow faster than your emissions. And that’s exactly what analysts expect to happen. ...