Additionality-Baselines

Additionality & Baselines: The Counterfactual That Decides Whether a Tonne Is Real Every carbon dioxide removal (CDR) credit is, at bottom, a claim about a parallel universe. Additionality asks whether the tonne of CO₂ subtracted from the atmosphere would have been subtracted anyway, absent the credit revenue. Baselines are the quantitative expression of that parallel universe: the reference scenario against which “extra” removal is measured. Get the baseline wrong and everything downstream — the price, the corporate net-zero claim, the registry’s reputation — is built on a number that doesn’t correspond to any physical reality. This is why buyers doing serious diligence spend more time on counterfactual assumptions than on capture chemistry, and why what “net zero” actually means depends on the integrity of the removals it invokes. ...