Take on a podcast episode from Studio Energie, originally published Tue, 08 Se. Listen: https://soundcloud.com/studio-energie/gijsbrecht-gunter-yara-over-de-businesscase-van-nederlandse-co2-in-de-noorse-bodem

TL;DR

  • First cross-border CCS chain in the world went live: 800 kt/yr CO2 from Yara Sluiskil shipped to Northern Lights in Norway, 15-year contract, ~12 Mt total.
  • Yara’s site director admits on-record the project doesn’t pencil at current ETS (~€85/t); needs a premium plus avoided carbon costs to close.
  • Netherlands scrapping its national CO2 surcharge on top of ETS actively worsens the business case for the front-runner — Gunter says the FID likely wouldn’t be taken today under current conditions.
  • Useful concrete cost benchmark: RED III-compliant green hydrogen for their ammonia would imply ~€15,000 per ton CO2 avoided. Damning number, first time I’ve seen it stated this cleanly.
  • CAPEX ~€200M on Yara’s side; contract with Northern Lights “a multiple” of that. Not disclosed further.

Remco de Boer (Studio Energie) interviews Gijsbrecht Gunter, director at Yara Sluiskil, on opening day of the first cross-border CCS chain — Dutch ammonia CO2 liquefied, shipped 800 km, injected under the Norwegian seabed via Northern Lights. In Dutch. The conversation is unusually candid about the economics, which is why it’s worth an hour.

The load-bearing admission: at today’s ETS price the project is underwater, and Yara needs a combination of customer premium for low-carbon fertiliser plus avoided carbon liability to make it work. Gunter, asked directly whether Yara would take FID today given the Dutch government’s decision to zero out the national CO2 surcharge on top of ETS until 2030: “mijn gevoel [is] dat we deze beslissing op dit moment niet genomen hadden.” That’s the front-runner telling you the policy stack has just been pulled out from under the next projects. He also flags that the low-carbon premium is real but small (“more than 1%”) and that volumes of willing buyers — PepsiCo, Lamb Weston, Harry Brot, Simpsons Malt were name-checked — are nowhere near enough to cover 800 kt/yr of abatement on price alone.

The second useful number is the RED III collision. To hit the renewable hydrogen mandate on top of doing CCS, Yara would need to import external green H2 at a cost of ~€600M/yr for 40 kt of additional CO2 abatement — €15,000/t. Gunter’s point isn’t that green hydrogen is bad; it’s that stacking mandates on a site that has already chosen blue+CCS as its decarb route destroys capital with no marginal climate benefit. This is the strongest specific case I’ve heard for why “technology-neutral tons abated” beats prescriptive fuel mandates in industrial policy.

Context: Northern Lights is the Longship-funded joint venture (Equinor/Shell/TotalEnergies) with the Norwegian state carrying ~€2B; Yara joins Heidelberg Materials Brevik and Ørsted as anchor customers. Ship capacity is scaling — current vessels ~7.5 kt, next generation 10–20 kt — which should bend the transport cost curve. For prior CD coverage of the receive-side, see the earlier Studio Energie episode with Tim Heijn at Øygarden linked in Remco’s back catalogue. The €150/t all-in figure Remco cites from that visit is roughly consistent with Gunter’s non-denial here that costs sit meaningfully above ETS.

Worth the listen if you’re modelling European industrial CCS unit economics, tracking how RED III interacts with CCS-based decarb pathways, or building the political-risk case for durable carbon pricing floors. Skip if you only want the ribbon-cutting narrative — Remco doesn’t let Gunter stay there.