Felix Schenuit from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) just published a policy paper through LibMod that makes a provocative argument: CDR is politically fragile, and the way to protect it is to stop treating it as a carbon accounting exercise and start treating it as industrial policy.
The Core Problem
The paper’s central concern is “climate backsliding” — the strategic weakening and rollback of climate policy that’s happening in multiple countries. When net-zero commitments erode, CDR loses its political rationale. After all, if you’re no longer committed to neutralizing residual emissions, why fund the technology to do it?
Unlike renewable energy or EVs, CDR doesn’t yet offer short-term competitiveness or energy security benefits. That makes it more dependent on stable climate policy frameworks — and therefore more vulnerable when those frameworks weaken.
The Proposed Fix
Schenuit argues for a fundamental reframing: move CDR from the climate ledger to the industrial policy toolkit. Instead of justifying carbon removal purely through emissions accounting, connect it to jobs, manufacturing, competitiveness, and resilience.
This isn’t just abstract policy theory. Germany recently committed €98 million as its first dedicated CDR budget line. The question is whether that money gets spent through a narrow emissions-accounting lens or as part of a broader industrial strategy that builds domestic CDR capacity with lasting economic roots.
Why This Matters Across Europe
The argument has implications far beyond Germany. Across the EU, CDR policy is at a crossroads. The countries that embed carbon removal into their industrial strategies — creating real facilities, real jobs, real supply chains — will have political constituencies that defend CDR even when climate ambition wavers.
Countries that treat CDR as pure climate accounting? They’ll find it’s the first thing cut when political winds shift.
🌍 From Germany (Translated Insight)
This paper was published in German and hasn’t gotten much English-language attention yet. The key phrase: “Ohne kurzfristige Fortschritte in der Umsetzung konkreter Projekte könnte CDR politisch scheitern” — Without short-term progress on concrete projects, CDR could fail politically.
That’s the sharpest diagnosis of CDR’s political vulnerability I’ve seen in any language this year.
Source: LibMod — Netto-Null verteidigen: eine neue Rolle für CO₂-Entnahme (German, PDF available)