Durable carbon removal in 2026 is a seller’s market, and the day’s four stories are all about what that does to buyers.

Supercritical, the UK carbon removal marketplace, had already sold 81% of its 2026 biochar supply before it signed Jain for a further 19,000 tonnes. Nasdaq and Relae launched a calendar so buyers can see when credits will actually reach the market. Germany’s BIK industrial decarbonisation programme opened its call to DAC and biogenic CO2 capture, with outlines due 6 December 2026. And on the science side, two enhanced rock weathering studies found that the soil carbon term, the number everyone had been treating as background, moves when you add organic matter alongside the rock. The market is building scheduling and procurement tools for a product whose measurement is still being argued over. That is the day’s tension.

Biochar supply is being sold out before the year it is delivered in

Supercritical reporting 81% of 2026 biochar supply already contracted on 1 November is the clearest signal in today’s set. Biochar is the volume workhorse of durable removal right now, cheaper than DAC and deliverable this year rather than in 2030. A marketplace that has placed four fifths of next year’s tonnes two months before the year starts is not struggling for demand. It is struggling for feedstock, kilns and verified deliveries.

The Jain agreement for 19,000 tonnes is the response. Adding a single counterparty at that scale after most of the book is sold tells me the constraint has moved from finding buyers to finding sellers whose tonnes will clear verification on time. The caveat is that 81% is a share of one platform’s own supply, not of global biochar, and I cannot tell from the announcement how much of the 19,000 tonnes lands in 2026 versus later. Still, a near-sold-out year is a near-sold-out year.

Buyers now need a delivery schedule, not just a price list

The Nasdaq and Relae calendar is a small product with a telling purpose: it shows corporate buyers when carbon credits are expected to be issued and hit the market. In a market where supply is loose, nobody needs this. You buy when you want. In a market where a platform has 19% of next year’s biochar left, timing is the whole game. A buyer with a 2026 net-zero interim target needs to know whether verified tonnes will exist in Q2 or Q4.

Nasdaq has been building market infrastructure for removals for a while, and Relae brings the project-level data. Together the calendar does for credits what shipping schedules do for commodities: it turns “sometime next year” into a date a procurement team can plan around. The limit is that a calendar is only as good as the project data feeding it, and issuance dates slip when MRV, meaning measurement, reporting and verification of the tonnes removed, takes longer than planned. So the calendar is also an honesty test for suppliers.

Germany is adding public demand on top of private demand

Germany’s BIK programme (Bundesförderung Industrie und Klimaschutz, the federal fund for industry and climate protection) opening to DAC and biogenic CO2 capture matters because it puts a large public buyer into the same queue as the corporates above. Biogenic CO2 capture covers things like capturing the CO2 from biomass combustion or fermentation and storing it, the approach usually called BECCS, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Project outlines are due 6 December 2026, which leaves about five weeks.

Public funding is a different kind of demand. It pays for capital spending on plants rather than for tonnes, so it loosens the supply side rather than tightening it. That is the right lever when the problem is not enough kilns, capture units and storage. The framing I want to be clear on, because BIK is an industrial programme: this money should go to removing residual emissions that cannot be cut, such as process CO2 from cement or lime. It should not become a reason for any industrial emitter to delay cutting the emissions it can cut. Removal is for the remainder, not a substitute for the main job.

The weathering studies show the accounting is not finished

Captain Drawdown’s daily CDR Log #305 covered two enhanced rock weathering (ERW) studies, where crushed silicate rock is spread on fields so it reacts with CO2 as it weathers. Both studies added organic carbon, compost or manure type inputs, alongside the rock dust. Both found that the soil carbon term shifted. In plain language: the amount of carbon sitting in the soil itself did not stay constant, so you cannot just measure the mineral weathering signal and ignore everything else.

This is a measurement result, not a verdict on ERW. But it is the kind of result that feeds straight back into the market stories above. If a term that most ERW crediting methods treat as fixed actually moves with farm management, then the number of tonnes a project can claim moves with it, and issuance dates slip. Two studies is a small base, and the direction and size of the shift will depend on soil type, climate and what exactly was added. That is precisely what a buyer reading the new issuance calendar should want to know before counting on ERW tonnes in a given quarter.

What’s next

Watch the 6 December BIK deadline. The number and mix of DAC versus biogenic capture outlines will show whether German industry sees removals as a near-term tool or a 2030s one.

And watch whether biochar marketplaces start publishing 2027 supply before 2026 is over. If next year’s book is also selling early, durable removal has a supply problem that calendars cannot fix, and the money has to go into building more capacity.

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