ClimeFi just published its 2026 CDR market insights based on a December 2025 RFP that attracted 114 suppliers from 39 countries across 142 projects. The headline: durable CDR supply is getting tight.
The numbers
- Only 52% of projected 2026 supply is still unreserved — making it the most constrained year in the 2026–2030 window
- Across 2026–2030, 58% of total supply remains available
- 66% of projects across all pathways (biochar, DACCS, BECCS, biomass, mCDR, mineralization) are now at commercialization stage
- Prices are converging within pathways as suppliers reach operations, secure verification, and build track records
What’s driving the squeeze
Demand from corporate buyers is outpacing supply buildout. Companies like Microsoft, Boeing, LEGO, and Mercedes F1 are locking in multi-year deals — and the supply side simply can’t scale fast enough.
The tightest spot is 2026 itself. Projects that broke ground in 2023–2024 are hitting commercial delivery, but there aren’t enough of them to cover growing demand. By 2028–2030, supply projections look better as more projects reach operational scale.
Price convergence — but with caveats
ClimeFi found that prices within the same CDR pathway are narrowing, especially for mature pathways like biochar where there’s enough operational history to benchmark. But they’re careful to note the market is still young: MRV methodologies, quality benchmarks, and regulatory frameworks all influence pricing strategies differently across suppliers.
Cross-pathway price comparison remains difficult. A tonne of DACCS is not the same product as a tonne of biochar is not the same as a tonne of ocean alkalinity enhancement — even if they all claim to remove one tonne of CO₂.
What this means for buyers
If you’re a corporate buyer thinking about CDR procurement: 2026 is already half-spoken-for. Waiting means fewer options and less negotiating leverage. The smart corporate buyers are building multi-year, multi-pathway portfolios now.
For CDR startups: the demand signal is real. The bottleneck isn’t buyers — it’s verified, deliverable supply.
Source: Carbon Herald