Here’s an uncomfortable truth the Paris Agreement doesn’t really grapple with: even if we hit 1.5°C and hold there, the damage keeps piling up.

Two new studies from IIASA (the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Vienna), published in Environmental Research Letters, lay out just how long the carbon removal commitment needs to last. The answer? Centuries.

The Lag Problem

Sea-level rise doesn’t stop when temperatures stabilize. Neither does permafrost thaw. These are slow-moving processes with enormous inertia — think of a supertanker that keeps drifting long after the engines are cut.

The IIASA researchers modeled what it takes to actually halt the growth of these delayed impacts. Simply reaching net-zero isn’t enough. You need sustained net-negative emissions — pulling more CO₂ out of the atmosphere than we put in — for hundreds of years.

What This Means for CDR

The implications for the carbon removal industry are profound:

1. CDR isn’t a temporary fix. Current policy timelines (2050 net-zero targets) are a starting point, not a finish line. The real commitment is multi-generational.

2. Durability matters more than ever. If we need CDR operating for centuries, the storage has to last at least that long. That’s why approaches like geological mineralization, deep ocean storage, and DACCS with geological sequestration are so critical — and why short-lived offsets are fundamentally inadequate for this job.

3. The investment case just got longer. Companies and governments planning CDR infrastructure need to think in terms of permanent institutions, not project timelines. This is closer to building a water treatment system than launching a startup.

The Uncomfortable Bottom Line

We’re not going to remove our way out of the climate crisis in a few decades. The physics demands a durable, multi-century commitment to pulling carbon from the atmosphere. That makes every investment in CDR capacity today not just a climate action — it’s infrastructure for a civilizational commitment our grandchildren’s grandchildren will still need.

The sooner policy catches up to this reality, the better our odds.

Source: IIASA — Centuries of net-negative emissions required to secure a safe climate future | Published in Environmental Research Letters, March 2026

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