Germany will need to remove 39 to 51 million tonnes of CO₂ per year by 2045 to hit its climate-neutrality target, according to a new study from Fraunhofer ISE, one of Europe’s leading energy research institutes. And the study delivers a blunt warning: delays in building out CO₂ transport and storage infrastructure significantly raise the risk of missing those targets entirely.

Why it matters

This is one of the first major studies to model CDR ramp-up within the full context of Germany’s energy system, rather than treating carbon removal as a standalone exercise. That distinction is important. CDR technologies need biomass, renewable electricity, and pipelines to move captured CO₂. Modeling them in isolation misses the bottlenecks. Fraunhofer ISE’s work makes those dependencies explicit, and the numbers are large enough to demand serious infrastructure planning starting now.

The details

The study, published by the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (Fraunhofer ISE), examines the role of negative emission technologies in reaching Germany’s legally binding goal of climate neutrality by 2045. It finds that a broad portfolio of removal methods is necessary, not just one or two approaches. The technologies modeled include:

  • Biochar carbon removal (BCR): Converting biomass into stable carbon-rich char that locks CO₂ away in soils for centuries.
  • Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS): Burning or processing biomass for energy while capturing the resulting CO₂ and storing it underground.
  • Waste-to-energy carbon capture and storage (WACCS): Capturing CO₂ from waste incineration plants, which already exist across Germany.
  • Direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS): Pulling CO₂ directly from ambient air using chemical processes, then storing it permanently. Together, these methods could deliver 39 to 51 megatonnes of CO₂ removal annually. For context, Germany’s total greenhouse gas emissions in recent years have been roughly 670 to 750 Mt CO₂-equivalent. So the study is saying that even after aggressive decarbonization, the country will still need to offset a meaningful slice of residual emissions through active removal. A critical finding: these technologies don’t work in isolation. They depend on shared infrastructure, particularly CO₂ pipelines and geological storage sites. They also interact with the broader energy system by contributing to district heating and providing system flexibility. The researchers used Fraunhofer ISE’s REMod model, which has been used for years to simulate Germany’s energy transition end-to-end. Several commenters on the original post, including Hansjörg Lerchenmüller, praised REMod as one of the most credible tools available for this kind of analysis. The study was co-funded by Carbonfuture, the Deutscher Verband für negative Emissionen (DVNE, Germany’s association for negative emissions), E.ON Energy Projects, German Biochar e.V., MVV Umwelt GmbH, and SYNCRAFT. Lead researchers named in the discussion include Markus Kaiser and Saskia Kühnhold-Pospischil at Fraunhofer ISE. The consortium was described as “technology-open,” meaning it wasn’t designed to favor any single removal pathway.

The infrastructure bottleneck

The standout policy message is about timing. If CO₂ transport and storage infrastructure isn’t built soon, the entire negative emissions ramp-up gets delayed, and the 2045 target slips out of reach. This is a familiar problem in climate policy: the physical stuff takes years to permit, finance, and build. Pipelines, injection wells, and monitoring systems don’t appear overnight. The study highlights one partial workaround. Biochar carbon removal is described as “infrastructure-independent” because it doesn’t require CO₂ pipelines or underground storage. The carbon stays locked in the biochar itself. That makes BCR a near-term option that can start delivering removals while heavier infrastructure is still being developed. This sequencing argument is worth paying attention to. It suggests a practical deployment order: start with biochar now, scale BECCS and WACCS as waste and biomass infrastructure connects to CO₂ networks, and bring DACCS online as renewable electricity becomes abundant and cheap enough to power it.

Implications

For CDR companies and investors operating in Germany, this study provides a government-adjacent research institution putting hard numbers on demand. Thirty-nine to 51 Mt per year is a massive market signal. It also reinforces that no single technology will be enough. Companies working on biochar, BECCS, or DAC all have a role, but they need coordinated infrastructure to deliver at scale. For policymakers, the message is that infrastructure delay equals climate risk. Every year without progress on CO₂ transport networks makes the 2045 math harder.

Caveats

A few things to keep in mind. The study is focused specifically on Germany, so the numbers don’t directly translate to other countries. The 39 to 51 Mt range depends on assumptions about how fast other sectors decarbonize. If emissions reductions stall elsewhere, the CDR burden grows. The study was partly funded by CDR-adjacent organizations, which doesn’t invalidate the research but is worth noting for transparency. And the essential caveat that applies to every CDR discussion: negative emissions are for residual emissions that can’t be eliminated through direct decarbonization. They are not a substitute for phasing out fossil fuels. The study itself frames NETs as one component of a broader climate-neutrality strategy, not a replacement for cutting emissions at the source.

Source: linkedin.com