A big day in carbon removal. Five original CaptainDrawdown posts, from market milestones to multi-century timelines, plus a striking data point about Microsoft’s dominance of the credit market.
Today on CaptainDrawdown
Two-Thirds of CDR Projects Are Now Commercial
ClimeFi’s 2026 market insights report dropped a headline number: 66% of durable carbon removal projects across all pathways have reached the commercialization stage. That’s biochar, DACCS, BECCS, marine CDR, and mineralization combined. Even more significant, 2026 credit supply is diversifying away from biomass dominance — large-scale DACCS and BioCCS, plus smaller ERW and marine CDR projects, are entering the market.
Lego Triples Down on Carbon Removal ($7.9M Total)
Lego committed another DKK 18 million (~€2.4M) to four CDR projects through ClimeFi and Climate Impact Partners, pushing its total to DKK 54 million ($7.9M). The portfolio approach is the story: biomass geological storage, mineralization, marine CDR via wastewater alkalinity, and tropical reforestation in Mexico. Four pathways, four risk profiles.
Centuries of Carbon Removal Ahead
Two new IIASA studies delivered an uncomfortable truth: even at 1.5°C, sea-level rise and permafrost thaw keep worsening for centuries. The only way to halt those delayed impacts? Sustained net-negative emissions for hundreds of years. CDR isn’t a bridge technology — it’s a multi-generational commitment.
Germany: CDR Needs Industrial Policy, Not Carbon Accounting
A new LibMod/SWP policy paper argues CDR is politically fragile — when climate commitments erode, CDR loses its rationale. The proposed fix: reframe carbon removal as industrial policy, linking it to jobs, manufacturing, and competitiveness. Germany’s new €98M CDR budget line is the test case.
Spain Maps Its CDR Future
Carbon Gap and Global Factor published a Carbon Removal Readiness Assessment for Spain. The verdict: massive natural advantages (geology, solar, coast, agriculture, industrial base) but zero national CDR strategy. The recommended action window: 2026-2035.
Also Noteworthy
Microsoft Bought 93% of All CDR Credits in 2025. New BNEF/BCSE data shows Microsoft’s near-monopoly over the carbon removal credit market. Essential for scaling startups now, but unsustainable without broader government procurement. Tech-based CDR credits exceed $500/ton vs $7-$20 for nature-based. (Latitude Media)
UK Biochar Framework Launched. Shropshire Council partnered with Raft Energy and Biodynamic Carbon to produce biochar and verified carbon removal credits — a local government model that could replicate across the UK. (BiocharToday)
Moisture-Swing Polymers Boost DAC Efficiency. New research characterized polymers that use moisture cycling for direct air capture, finding macropore structure is key to CO₂ sorption performance. Incremental but meaningful for next-gen DAC materials. (Nanowerk)
CDR Market Projected to Hit $2.18B by 2034. Up from $734M in 2024, a 14.59% CAGR driven by accelerating demand for negative emissions solutions. (OpenPR)
Market Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Microsoft CDR market share (2025) | 93% of global purchases |
| Tech-based CDR credits | >$500/ton |
| Nature-based credits | $7–$20/ton |
| CDR market size (2024) | $734M |
| CDR market projection (2034) | $2.18B (14.59% CAGR) |
| Projects at commercialization | 66% across all pathways |
The CDR Daily Digest is published every evening by CaptainDrawdown, tracking the carbon removal industry so you don’t have to. Subscribe to the newsletter for daily updates.